The Republican Nomination for President

With the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd, the process will officially begin to select the Republican nominee for President of the United States.

Polls have described a fickle Republican electorate over the past few months.  Texas Governor Rick Perry surged in the early fall, then it was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.  But all along, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the man to beat.  The Republican Party has a royalist tradition; in almost every election since 1960, the party has picked the heir apparent nominee as its standard-bearer.



Mitt Romney

Romney is a stronger, more disciplined candidate than he was in 2008.  The state of the economy plays to Romney's strengths; check out the glowing article on his years at Harvard Business School that ran in The New York Times, not a newspaper known for its friendliness to Republican candidates.  And while a debate between Newt Gingrich and President Obama would probably be one of the most exciting in history, Romney has shown a polished focus that could carry him to victory.

The bottom line is that Mitt Romney can beat President Obama.  The latest Rasmussen Reports poll gives Romney a six-point advantage.  A Presidential election, of course, is actually 51 different races in the various states and the District of Columbia.  Romney almost certainly restores Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina to the Republican column; likely wins Ohio and Florida; and has at least an even shot of capturing marginal states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.  Picking a running mate like New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, a former prosecutor with sky-high approval ratings, might seal the deal in the Southwest.

Of the remaining candidates, I have also been very impressed with former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who could clearly defeat President Obama by attracting many Independents and independent-minded Democrats to his campaign.  Huntsman has focused almost all his energy on New Hampshire, but I just don't see him beating Romney.  Should Romney fail, though, Huntsman emerges as one to watch in 2016.